Zambia Investor Briefing: October
In this month’s briefing: the Kwacha reached its strongest level since early 2024, inflation fell for the third consecutive month, and copper production remains on track for a historic milestone. This month also saw major policy developments including local content implementation and a pivot towards IMF programme extension.
OCTOBER IN NUMBERS
→ 23% - Kwacha appreciation YTD (Africa's #1)
→ 12.3% - Inflation rate (3-month decline)
→ 52.2 - PMI reading (7-year high)
→ 1M+ - Tonnes of copper production expected in 2025
→ $10B+ - Mining sector investment commitments reached
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Currency Performance
The Zambian Kwacha closed October trading at K21.70 to the US dollar, representing a 23% appreciation year-to-date and making it Africa's top-performing currency in 2025. The strength is driven by elevated copper prices above $10,800/tonne and increased mining sector investment confidence.
Inflation
Inflation continued its downward trajectory, falling to 12.3% in September from 12.6% in August. Food inflation declined from 14.9% to 14.6%. The Bank of Zambia expects inflation to reach its 6-8% target range by Q1 2026.
Private Sector Growth
September's Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 52.2 - the fastest expansion since May 2018. Output increased at the strongest pace since June 2023, driven by new orders and improved customer purchasing power. Employment levels rose at one of the steepest rates in 2025.
⛏️ MINING DEVELOPMENTS
Record Copper Production Expected
Zambia is on track to produce over 1 million tonnes of copper in 2025—the first time since the 1920s. Production so far this year stands at 821,000 tonnes. President Hichilema has set a target of 3 million tonnes annually by the early 2030s.
Problems at mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile have reduced global supply, pushing copper prices up more than 20% this year to $10,887.50 per ton, creating a perfect opportunity for Zambia.
Jubilee Metals Refocuses on Zambia
In early October, Jubilee Metals Group announced it is selling its South African chrome and PGM operations for up to $90 million to focus exclusively on Zambian copper. The company received the first tranche of $15 million and expects completion by end of 2025. Jubilee's Three-Pillar Strategy targets 25,000 tonnes per annum through its Roan Concentrator, Sable Refinery, and Large Waste Project.
Local Content Implementation
In other mining news, Mines Minister Paul Kabuswe signed the Local Content Statutory Instrument to mandate increased participation by Zambian contractors and suppliers in the mining sector. The ministry committed to full implementation with benefits reserved for fully Zambian-owned companies.
⚡️ ENERGY & INFRASTRUCTURE
Power Sector Developments
This month, Zambia and Mozambique announced plans to jointly develop the 1,500MW Mphanda Nkuwa hydroelectric project on the Zambezi River. A Zambian delegation is scheduled to visit Mozambique in early November to assess project scope.
The announcement follows broader efforts to diversify energy sources, with plans to add over 740MW of solar capacity within the next year as part of the Mission 300 initiative targeting 10GW by 2030.
Agriculture Infrastructure
The UNDP, Zambian government, FAO, and WFP commissioned the Msoro Agro-Bulking Centre in Mambwe District—a $234,000 facility with 700-tonne capacity serving over 7,000 smallholder farmers. The Green Climate Fund-supported centre includes solar-powered water and modern storage infrastructure.
AI Special Economic Zone
The Zambia Development Agency signed a Letter of Intent with Lucid Circuit to establish an Artificial Intelligence Special Economic Zone valued between $150-300 million. The initiative is expected to position Zambia as a regional innovation hub and attract global investment in emerging technologies.
📝 POLICY DEVELOPMENTS
Aid and Self-Reliance
In early October, President Hichilema told the Financial Times that U.S. aid cuts are "long overdue" and will push Zambia to "take care of our own affairs." The government raised healthcare spending 13% to K26.2 billion in the 2026 budget and increased drug procurement funds by 30%.
IMF Program Extension
On 1 October, Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane confirmed that Zambia is seeking a 12-month extension of Zambia's $1.7 billion IMF Extended Credit Facility through October 2026. The extension includes an additional $145 million in financing. Zambia has cleared 94% of its debt arrears.
DEAL OF THE MONTH 🤝
Jubilee Metals' $90M pivot to Zambia signals the UK’s growing confidence in the country's copper sector. The company is exiting mature South African operations to concentrate exclusively on Zambian opportunities in a rare full-portfolio shift that underscores the investment case for copper in a supply-constrained market.
👀 WHAT WE’RE WATCHING IN NOVEMBER
→ Zambian delegation visit to Mozambique for Mphanda Nkuwa project assessment
→ Potential Bank of Zambia interest rate decision (inflation now in declining trend)
→ Jubilee Metals' operational updates on Roan and Sable facilities
📖 WHAT WE’VE BEEN READING IN OCTOBER
Zambia's Copper Mining Expansion: $10 Billion Investment Drives 2025 Growth - (Discovery Alert, 9 October 2025)
Chibesakunda, Melu, Chola: Meet 10 women reshaping Zambian business - (The Africa Report, 9 October 2025)
Copper Drives Africa's Continued Mining Growth and Success - (Mining Review Africa, 15 October 2025)
Navigating Africa's Investment Landscape in 2025/26: Key Insights from RMB's Report - (African Business, 30 October 2025)
📈 BY THE NUMBERS: ZAMBIA'S MINING BOOM
🚜 $10B+ Total mining investment commitments 🚜 $2B Barrick's Lumwana expansion
🚜 $1.3B First Quantum's expansion plan 🚜 $1B Vedanta's commitment to Konkola
🚜 3M Tonnes annual copper target by early 2030s 🚜 70% Share of exports from copper
🚜 20% Copper price increase this year
QUOTE OF THE MONTH
"It forces us to grow our economies and to do the things we should have been doing. It's painful for now. There is a shock. But longer term, it's a good thing."
— President Hakainde Hichilema on US aid cuts.