Zambia Investor Briefing November

OCTOBER IN NUMBERS (AND LETTERS)

→ CCC+ - S&P credit rating (exit from default)

→ 14.25% - Policy rate (first cut in 5 years)

→ 11.9% - Inflation rate (October, continued decline)

→ 5.2% - IMF growth forecast for 2025

📈 ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Credit Rating Upgrade 

On 22 November, S&P Global Ratings removed Zambia's default status, five years after the country became Africa's first pandemic-era sovereign defaulter. The agency assigned a CCC+/C rating with a stable outlook. Zambia's dollar bonds maturing in 2033 rose to 95.91 cents, having returned 15% since April. The upgrade reflects progress in restructuring 94% of eligible debt, with only a small portion held by commercial banks remaining under negotiation.

Interest Rate Cut 

The Bank of Zambia cut its policy rate to 14.25% on November 12th, marking the first reduction in five years. Annual inflation fell to 11.9% in October from 12.3% in September, with prices easing as high copper prices boosted exports and strengthened the Kwacha. 

IMF Growth Projection 

The IMF projects Zambia's economy to grow 5.2% in 2025, above the 4.1% average for African countries. IMF Resident Representative Eric Lautier noted the projection was revised down from 5.8% due to energy sector challenges, but remains strong relative to regional peers. 

World Bank Endorsement 

The World Bank praised Zambia's economic reforms, highlighting fiscal discipline and improved macroeconomic stability as key drivers of the country's recovery.

⛏️ MINING DEVELOPMENTS 

Vedanta's $1.5B Konkola Expansion  

Vedanta Resources launched CopperTech Metals Inc., a US-domiciled subsidiary to operate Konkola Copper Mines with an additional $1.5 billion investment. The company targets 300,000 tonnes annually by 2031, up from 140,000 tonnes forecast for 2026. Konkola features copper ore grades of 2.9%, four times higher than the global average. The project leverages the US-backed $10 billion Lobito Corridor connecting Zambia's Copperbelt to Angola's Atlantic coast.

Mining Stake Regulations Rejected

President Hakainde Hichilema rejected proposed regulations that would have given the state a minimum 15% free-carried stake in mines producing copper and critical minerals. Hichilema’s special assistant for finance and investment confirmed the government does not support taking equity without financial consideration, protecting the investment climate as companies commit $10 billion in copper expansion projects.

Oil Refinery Investment

The Zambia Development Agency issued an investor license for a $510.49 million oil refinery in Ndola, expected to create 454 jobs. The project will be developed through a joint venture between the Industrial Development Corporation and China's Xiang Xin Holding Co. Limited within the Sub Sahara Gemstone Exchange Industrial Park.

Dangote Energy Partnership

Africa's richest man Aliko Dangote met President Hichilema to discuss energy sector investments. Dangote pledged to explore solar and thermal energy generation, leveraging his Ndola cement facility to address power deficits in Zambia and the DRC. The Dangote Group's existing Zambia operations represent over $500 million invested in a 1.5 million tonne cement plant with a 30MW captive power plant.

⚡️ ENERGY & INFRASTRUCTURE

EU Railway Modernisation

The European Union signed a €50 million agreement with Zambia Railways on November 13th to rehabilitate the Livingstone-Ndola mainline. The funding will support track renewals, signalling upgrades, and rail sector reforms including an open-access regime for private participation. The investment strengthens Zambia's position in the Lobito Corridor, the key trade route connecting the Copperbelt to Angola's Atlantic coast.

Solar Power Expansion

A $245 million 200MW solar project was announced for the Copperbelt region. The African Development Bank approved $14.5 million for a 20MW solar project. GenVision, Tatanga Energy, and AMDG Energy plan to develop a 300MW solar project plus battery storage in the Copperbelt.

Telecommunications Investment

The government announced a $280 million plan to end telecommunications outages and improve network reliability across the country. The initiative addresses persistent connectivity issues that have affected business operations and digital infrastructure development.

Angola Rail Link

Angola is seeking $4.5 billion to build a rail connection to Zambia's Copperbelt, further strengthening the Lobito Corridor infrastructure. The project would provide an alternative export route to the Atlantic coast, reducing dependence on existing southern routes through Zimbabwe and South Africa.

📝 POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

Pension System Reforms

Labour Minister Brenda Tambatamba announced comprehensive pension reforms to increase flexibility in lump sum access. The current 20% partial withdrawal will be expanded, and a voluntary sub-scheme will allow additional contributions beyond mandatory rates. Civil servants will gain access to the Public Service Pensions Fund alongside NAPSA contributions.

Mining Governance Transformation

Zambia implemented significant mining governance reforms, modernising licensing, regulatory frameworks, and transparency measures to improve investor confidence and operational predictability in the sector.

DEAL OF THE MONTH 🤝

S&P's removal of Zambia's default status marks a watershed moment five years after the 2020 default. The CCC+/C rating with stable outlook reflects completed restructuring of 94% of eligible debt and validates the government's fiscal discipline. The rating upgrade triggered an immediate rally in dollar bonds and positions Zambia to gradually rebuild access to international capital markets.

👀  WHAT WE’RE WATCHING IN DECEMBER

→ BackChat’s Choolwe Chibomba will be interviewing Tom Elliot, CEO of Hotspur Helium. The London based company recently secured exclusive rights to Nsama’s Exploration Licence in Northern Zambia, and are playing a leading role in developing Zambia’s helium resources.

→ Dangote Group energy investment details and timeline.

📖  WHAT WE’VE BEEN READING (AND WATCHING) IN OCTOBER

Zambia's Mining Governance Transformation and Modernization - (Discovery Alert | 17 November 2025)

Chinese power investments in Africa: lessons from South Africa and Zambia - (Overseas Development Institute | November 18, 2025)

China premier makes landmark Zambia trip as West vies for investment foothold - (DevDiscourse/Reuters | November 19, 2025)

QUOTE OF THE MONTH 

"This upgrade confirms that Zambia has moved out of default status and is steadily restoring its place as a credible, stable, and investable economy."

— Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane on S&P's rating upgrade, marking Zambia's exit from five years of default status