Debt Restructuring Deal Puts Zambia Back in the Champions League
After months of build-up and years of waiting, Zambia has arranged a historic deal to restructure more than $6 billion in debts owed to foreign creditors.
The deal, which will rearrange the structure of the money lent bilaterally to Zambia by nations including China, marks the first major debt relief assigned to a developing country within the Group of 20 (G20)’s Common Framework. Public sector creditors have agreed to reschedule $6.3 billion of debt, $.1.3 billion of which were accrued arrears.
The news was announced by a French official, and later confirmed by Zambia’s finance ministry, ahead of the Globate Climate Finance conference being held in Paris. The summit’s aims include combatting poverty, fighting climate change and reaching “climate solidarity” between developed and developing nations. The same official disclosed that the Memorandum of Understanding contains a clause “requiring comparability of treatment for Zambia’s commercial debts”, guaranteeing that private sector creditors will follow the G20 Common Framework and restructure the $6.8 billion they are owed, meaning that a total of $13.1 billion in debt is to be repackaged.
Presidents Macron and Hichilema greet each other outside the conference. (Hakainde Hichilema / Facebook)
Details are expected to emerge in the coming days once Zambia has formally accepted the debt relief, but an anonymous member of the Paris Club confirmed that China and India had agreed to terms with traditional creditor nations of the Club. It is further understood that the creditors have unilaterally agreed to extend the repayment deadlines for loans by 20 years, with an initial three-year grace period also among the terms.
The memorandum that will be signed will be historic for a number of reasons. The relief will address the debt Zambia incurred when it became the first African nation to default on COVID pandemic-era national debt; the arrangement is the first significant restructuring agreed within the G20 Common Framework; and the deal is likely to lead the way for other struggling nations, including Ghana, Sri Lanka and Ethiopia, whose talks with major creditors have all recently stalled in similar fashion to those of Zambia in the spring.
Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, mentioned that debt relief was an urgent priority for Ghana and Sri Lanka upon arriving in Paris on Wednesday, when she hinted at Zambia’s debt deal being “very close”. Yellen has been a central figure in the revitalisation of multinational discussions on Zambian debt resolution, and drew attention to the urgent need for round-table talks during her visit to the nation as part of her January 2023 tour of Africa.
Secretary Yellen with President Hichilema during her tour of Africa in January 2023 (Saul Leob / Getty Images)
The deal has yet to be signed; its announcement, nonetheless, has had an immediate and profound impact. Zambia’s currency has rallied 12% this month, making the kwacha the fastest-growing of the 150 currencies monitored by Bloomberg. The 12% increase is the greatest growth the kwacha has enjoyed in more than 7 years. Zambia’s eurobonds, meanwhile, have returned 10.1%, a figure bested only by El Salvador and Argentina.
In October, Zambia’s treasury secretary, Felix Nkulukusa, said that the country was seeking to restructure 12.8 billion in external debt. Nkulukusa also explained that reducing foreign holdings of domestic debt would release funds for other creditors such as China. It is suspected that a significant portion of this initial $6.3 billion package will be committed to servicing debt holdings.
The Paris Club official also disclosed that the $4.1 billion owed to the national Export-Import Bank of China formed the majority of the $6.3 billion package, which is publicly known to have been funds owed to government bodies. They added that Beijing was wary to be seen holding up debt relief for Zambia at a summit attended by 40 world leaders designed to ease debt burdens for developing nations and free up finances for climate initiatives. President Macron’s meetings with Chinese authorities in Beijing in April are understood to have had a significant impact on yesterday’s final talks.
Presidents Macron and Xi in April. (Eliot Blondet / Sipa USA)
Eswar Prasad, professor of economics at Cornell University, said that China’s “endgame seems to be a resolution that limits its financial losses while spreading more broadly the blame for the distressing and untenable situation that many highly indebted economies find themselves in”. The International Monetary Fund has estimated that 70 of the lowest-income nations are burdened by a collective $326 billion in debt; more than half of those same nations are in, or reaching, debt distress.
Ghana and Ethiopia have been locked in talks with creditors for months, their debts dominated by loans from China. It is hoped a solution to their plight will be agreed by the conference’s conclusion.
The scale of Zambia’s debt had been a cause of concern for major Zambian creditors and potential investors, compounding its repercussions. Financing assurances were provided by Zambia’s biggest creditors in July 2022; reports in January 2023 expected restructuring to take place in March. In May, two months after debt relief was supposed to have been arranged, Zambia’s central bank was forced to raise inflation by 25 basis points to 9.5%. Growth in 2022 reached 4.7%, despite Zambia’s distressed status, but forecasts expected a drop to 3.6% in 2023. The IMF guaranteed a $188 million financing disbursement in April 2023, to be released once debt was restructured; Zambia has been waiting patiently for this immediate boost to their economy ever since.
Finance Minister Musokotwane during July 2022 negotiations. (Zinyange Auntony / Getty Images).
Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF and another vocal supporter of Zambia, issued a statement on Thursday, which read, “Today we will talk about Zambia, which I think is a great case of celebration because it makes debt restructuring agile and effective”. Visiting Lusaka in January 2023, Georgieva committed to assisting “Zambia on its journey towards a more resilient and inclusive future”. She said that she was “hugely impressed by Zambia’s enormous potential given its rich endowment of natural resources, and a dynamic and entrepreneurial youth population”. She praised Zambia’s “efforts to improve the use of public resources by reallocating resources from poorly targeted and inefficient spending and redirecting them to much-needed spending on education and health”, and asked creditors for “swift resolution of its debt situation to complement these reform efforts and preserve the positive growth momentum”.
In April, Georgieva accompanied a trip of IMF staff to Zambia, and told reporters that “The ball is truly in the court of the creditors”. Georgieva and the IMF’s unrelenting support for Zambia has been critical in adding much-needed optimism to the discussion of Zambia’s debt relief and highlighting the role that China and private creditors could play in Zambia’s return to economic good health.
IMF Managing Director Georgieva in Chongwe, Zambia. (Kim Haughton / IMF)
This morning, Hakainde Hichilema, President of Zambia, spoke before delegates at the New Global Financing Pact at Palais Brongniart, Paris. He thanked Presidents Macron and Xi, along with other major creditors. Hichilema concluded his speech with a familiar refrain: “Zambia is back in the Champions League”.